Not all Billionaires Know the Art of the Deal
A Story About Cool Cats and Barking Dogs
When Kevin O'Leary, businessman and recent Shark Tank participant, was asked about Trump’s tariffs, he mused that America has to “train China like a puppy”.
I’m not sure the world-famous dog-whisperer Cesar Millan would agree.
That comment reminded me of when I, an executive officer for the US Agency for International Development (USAID) at the time, accompanied a team from the US Department of State Overseas Building Operations (OBO) on a 2003 trip to Baghdad soon after our infamous “shock and awe” invasion of Iraq.
One of the goals of the trip was to discuss USAID occupancy in the spacious and opulent Republican Palace, a preferred ceremonial and diplomatic meeting place for Sadham Hussein before being converted into the headquarters of the Coalition Provisional Authority during the U.S. occupation. Given USAID’s size, and its development and foreign assistance mandate, USAID eventually built its own compound nearby.
At its height the USAID compound housed several hundred American personnel focused on rebuilding the country. An American Embassy in Baghdad was constructed in 2009 which replaced the Republican Palace, making it the largest embassy in the world.
But that’s another story.
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During my first of two trips to Baghdad, our senior OBO real estate negotiator recalled the time many years before when he had visited China in a more junior role to negotiate the property purchase for a consulate office. He recalled learning several critical new skills on that trip.
One was how not to act with the Chinese if you hope to get anything like what you need in a negotiation. Some lessons you learn by positive example. Others, like this one, you learn in the opposite way.
He recalled that his then-boss, the lead OBO negotiator, opened the discussions like a barking dog. He was loud, arrogant, domineering, demanding all diplomatic courtesies, pushing for lower costs, insisting that things be done now, immediately, right away. Acting as though he were in charge and the strength of his position was reflected in the decibel level.
Bark! Bark! Bark! Just like a dog hearing someone ring the doorbell.
But what my colleague remembered most clearly, as though it were yesterday, was the reaction of the Chinese team. They just sat there, quiet, unmoved, placid, smiling across the table, saying nothing. Their reaction reminded him of cats, seemingly uninterested, indifferent, oblivious to their American counterparts sitting directly in front of them, licking their paws, in no hurry.
After several hours of fruitless barking, the OBO negotiator understood that things were going nowhere slow. His aggressive and perhaps stereotypical American approach would simply not work with these folks. No matter how loud he barked or how much he insisted, they would just sit there and smile back in silence.
He eventually understood that his best bet was to stop, quiet down, and acknowledge the reality that the Chinese negotiators were willing to wait the Americans out. They were prepared to let the Americans bark away as loud as they wanted until they relented.
The Chinese team had all the time in the world.
In the end, that’s exactly what happened. OBO acquiesced, dialed down its aggression, and accepted most of what the Chinese were willing to offer.
The patient cats made the barking dogs heel. “Good boy!”
The moral of my colleague’s story was clear: know your environment, prepare for it, including by studying and understanding the cultural perspective of your counterparts. We can be assured that the Chinese know what they want and what they are willing to accept. They have been exceptional negotiators for centuries. It’s no coincidence that “strategic patience” is so closely associated with China.
They know exactly what empty bluster looks like and what loud barking means.
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It now seems we need to relearn old lessons, this time at the presidential level. We appear to believe, once again, that barking loud like a dog might work this time. My sense is that the other side is behaving once again like a cat, quiet, placid, licking its paws, smiling, waiting… until we relent and give them what they want.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/business/video/china-tariffs-oleary-nr-digvid?cid=ios_app
Stephen Callahan is a retired Senior Foreign Service Officer with more than 30 years of service with the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Department of State.
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I recall reading somewhere a Chinese proverb, “who endures, conquers.”
I'm confused. You began your piece by citing the odious Kevin O'Leary musing that America has to “train China like a puppy” but then you proceeded to talk a lot about the puppy trainer barking menacingly.
With respect, as every dog owner knows, that's not at all how you train a puppy and I doubt that's what O'Leary meant. Puppy training consists mostly of rewards in a friendly situation, not of threats and punishments in an adversarial situation.
That said, I agree that beating one's chest and making demands which, in the eyes of our interlocutors, probably typifies the bully boy approach is not effective. But we as a country have followed that self-destructive blueprint for many decades, especially in our foreign policy, and it is silly to suggest that this was a Trump invention or even the typical approach of people in the business world.
Back in 2016, due to my desire to understand the new President and the world he came from, I forced myself to read a couple of Trump's books, including Art of the Deal, and I found many more mentions of carrots than sticks. There were a whole lot of psychological tactics in there as well, of course.
But, yes, dealing with certain cultures, especially Asian ones, in a barking dog is self-defeating. Totally agree.