I've been meaning to write something else, it's OT for the piece here, but I hope you'll forgive me. A previous conversation reminded me of something, you used the phrase 'balance of powers' somewhere and it made me remember a history class about the aftermath of the 1870/71 war. We had a very old-school history teacher at that time and in one of the classes he drew a diagram onto the blackboard, indicating how Bismarck had set up international treaties and alliances after the war with the aim of isolating France. He was convinced that another war with France was just a matter of time and he tried to ensure that France was too weak of either winning that war or preferably not even starting it.
I remember the teacher emphasising that it was of particular importance for Bismarck to prevent France and Russia entering into an agreement. And I also remember him saying that within a year or two of Bismarck leaving the government one 'leg' of his network of treaties and alliances collapsed and France and Russia were entering into an agreement.
I have just checked and page 82 of the Penguin Atlas of World History has got a diagram showing exactly this. (The Vienna Congress diagram is on page 38.)
I am certain that you'll find the book really really useful, especially as you're preparing your lecture series. (If not, then I'll buy you a coffee as reimbursement) There's a copy here:
Thank you for your comment, Claudia. I have bought the book. Look forward to studying it. I doubt I'll have to hit you up for that coffee.
On Bismarck, the way Kissinger and others describe it, the complex "balance of power" system Bismarck had built and was able to manage with such skill had one huge weakness. It depended on him to manage it, he was "indispensable," and few (or no) others were up to the challenge. So when Bismarck departed the scene, or was summarily fired by the young upstart Wilhelm II, the complex balancing mechanism fell apart soon thereafter. (The photo I have for my modest newsletter marks the infamous moment of Bismarck's firing). I think of that moment a lot.
Ultimately, human systems, including political systems and international organizations and agreements, depend on actual human beings to run and manage them--people who have faults, sometimes glaring. (This is not an argument in support of AI running our lives, au contraire). Some historians call the death of Wilhelm II's father one of the great tragedies of bad luck in human history, because it left Germany in the hands of an impetuous, arrogant, and impatient young man who didn't listen to others and thought he knew better. It turns out he didn't.
Fast forward to today, if I'm worried about one thing, it's that. Rightly or wrongly, some critics believe that some of us are overreacting to the dangers posed by the current American president. That we have lost our minds to so-called TDS (T.... derangement syndrome. This reminds me of the people in the Biden entourage who called anyone who raised questions about Biden's age "bedwetters" to cut legitimate questioning of the then president's abilities off at the knees. Very very bad). But if the people in charge of the system don't care about the system, don't understand it, and believe they know better, then we're playing with fire, because the system doesn't run itself. I know I'm not the only one who sees similarities between Mr. Trump and Wilhelm II. That scares me a great deal, for obvious reasons.
I've been meaning to write something else, it's OT for the piece here, but I hope you'll forgive me. A previous conversation reminded me of something, you used the phrase 'balance of powers' somewhere and it made me remember a history class about the aftermath of the 1870/71 war. We had a very old-school history teacher at that time and in one of the classes he drew a diagram onto the blackboard, indicating how Bismarck had set up international treaties and alliances after the war with the aim of isolating France. He was convinced that another war with France was just a matter of time and he tried to ensure that France was too weak of either winning that war or preferably not even starting it.
I remember the teacher emphasising that it was of particular importance for Bismarck to prevent France and Russia entering into an agreement. And I also remember him saying that within a year or two of Bismarck leaving the government one 'leg' of his network of treaties and alliances collapsed and France and Russia were entering into an agreement.
I have just checked and page 82 of the Penguin Atlas of World History has got a diagram showing exactly this. (The Vienna Congress diagram is on page 38.)
I am certain that you'll find the book really really useful, especially as you're preparing your lecture series. (If not, then I'll buy you a coffee as reimbursement) There's a copy here:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/297162696654?_skw=penguin+atlas+of+world+history&epid=30448238&itmmeta=01JWZXYDA7KYBN4VMX8H9B6C0G&hash=item453046e7ce:g:smUAAeSwFXpn6lkk&itmprp=enc%3AAQAKAAABAFkggFvd1GGDu0w3yXCmi1cY9Fgr8RYVzn6At6FcQ2Vzq15sNzUi8HxQgYBe2J6sEPiJIzJ6SEWjFPS73sR9C3qiQZ0tsweaCFmR%2FYI6c21Q%2FBNA0X0Z%2BBuKf8yXA9kWHkiF48dx3AS5Z%2BM13D5rySg1O%2BgK4inS8OE8ny1QvAZmFYiMHZP%2F653fs0AgznYBTQYJ1z7uo2tSIZkBYCtmNVptFY%2BPfZjvOQWLulqtB9G5ituoSQmzazQVimVdPDBsOsbTmUPXxhT5VrgOLAT9Uaud49mXFuLLxookGaDrmj1YzCGm5EBSMZl1jma3YrZRQR9uzyRUdCetJgs5BLQrWhE%3D%7Ctkp%3ABFBMntX5_edl
Thank you for your comment, Claudia. I have bought the book. Look forward to studying it. I doubt I'll have to hit you up for that coffee.
On Bismarck, the way Kissinger and others describe it, the complex "balance of power" system Bismarck had built and was able to manage with such skill had one huge weakness. It depended on him to manage it, he was "indispensable," and few (or no) others were up to the challenge. So when Bismarck departed the scene, or was summarily fired by the young upstart Wilhelm II, the complex balancing mechanism fell apart soon thereafter. (The photo I have for my modest newsletter marks the infamous moment of Bismarck's firing). I think of that moment a lot.
Ultimately, human systems, including political systems and international organizations and agreements, depend on actual human beings to run and manage them--people who have faults, sometimes glaring. (This is not an argument in support of AI running our lives, au contraire). Some historians call the death of Wilhelm II's father one of the great tragedies of bad luck in human history, because it left Germany in the hands of an impetuous, arrogant, and impatient young man who didn't listen to others and thought he knew better. It turns out he didn't.
Fast forward to today, if I'm worried about one thing, it's that. Rightly or wrongly, some critics believe that some of us are overreacting to the dangers posed by the current American president. That we have lost our minds to so-called TDS (T.... derangement syndrome. This reminds me of the people in the Biden entourage who called anyone who raised questions about Biden's age "bedwetters" to cut legitimate questioning of the then president's abilities off at the knees. Very very bad). But if the people in charge of the system don't care about the system, don't understand it, and believe they know better, then we're playing with fire, because the system doesn't run itself. I know I'm not the only one who sees similarities between Mr. Trump and Wilhelm II. That scares me a great deal, for obvious reasons.
Thank you as always for your thoughtful comments.
Great essay. Thank you.
Just one thought, I always thought that he was WernHer von Braun, which is an unusual spelling of his name, rather than the default you used.
You’re right about the spelling. I wrote it wrong or failed to correct autocorrect. It’s Wernher.
Case closed. What can explain the suicidal stupidity?
I for one am not smart enough to know. 🥸